A Year of Reconstruction: Syria Since the Fall of Assad

Emily Sawires

Introduction

It has officially been a year since former Syrian President Bashar al Assad was overthrown, ushering the country into an era of reconstruction. After decades of tyranny and conflict, the current interim government is seeking to rebuild Syria and reestablish its place in the international community. The civil war resulted in a war-torn country, millions of displaced people, and the country’s political future hanging in the balance. While the end of the Assad regime was a monumental victory for Syria after generations of oppression, persisting sectarian divides, resurgence of violence, and economic struggles continue to threaten the country’s prosperity and pose challenges to reconstruction.

A Decade of Civil War

The civil war was triggered by the Arab Spring in 2011, when Middle Eastern and North African nations, including Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Yemen, experienced a series of civilian uprisings against authoritarian regimes and pervasive corruption. The Assad family had been ruling Syria since 1971, with President Bashar al Assad succeeding his father in 2000. Both dictators led the country under a tyrannical regime, subjecting the nation to censorship, enforced disappearance of alleged dissenters, and economic corruption, among other human rights abuses. Protests in Syria first began when a group of teenage boys was arrested for spray painting “the people want the fall of the regime.” These uprisings evolved into a full-fledged civil war in 2013, as the Syrian government fought to repress various rebel groups vying for control. Major power players included the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) under Kurdish leadership, the Syrian National Army (SNA) backed by Turkey, and the Islamic State (ISIS). By 2024, a dominant Islamist armed group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HST),  emerged. The HST, who were formerly known as al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Nusra, took the offensive lead on combating the Syrian government. On December 8, 2024, the HST successfully captured Damascus, Syria’s capital, and effectively ousted President Assad. The HST took over the country and established a transitional government with Ahmed el Sharaa, the group’s leader, as interim president, taking on the task of rebuilding Syria. 

The Current Transitional Government

The interim regime has been received with both praise and skepticism in the domestic and international community. Three months after stepping into power, President Sharaa established a 23 member cabinet, composed of leaders from a variety of political affiliations and cultural backgrounds. While the highest positions belong to HST leaders, the cabinet includes representatives from different Syrian rebel groups and even former affiliates of the Assad regime. In addition, influential members from various ethnic and religious sects were given seats, including Kurds, Christians, Druze, and Alawites. Despite efforts to cultivate an improved, diverse regime, President Sharaa’s newly constructed cabinet consolidates power among HST officials, generating concerns regarding fairness and equal representation. Furthermore, only one woman currently holds a position in the new cabinet, although the government has stated that more women will be added in the future. A parliament was established in October, with elections held to select two-thirds of the members and the remaining seats assigned by the interim president. The criticisms surrounding President Sharaa’s cabinet are reinforced by the new parliament due to the partially free election system, as well as the deficient representation of women and minority groups. The concentration of power among members of HST, coupled with a lack of diversity in the interim government, is cause for apprehension, with potential for corruption and totalitarianism. Another source of concern regarding HST is the group’s roots in al Qaeda and its former classification as an extremist group, though the government has distanced itself from jihadist associations. 

So far, one of the greatest successes of the HST government is its emphasis on diplomacy. The Assad dictatorship had alienated many Western powers, choosing to rely on sponsorship from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. In contrast, President Sharaa has expressed a strong desire to develop and foster alliances with former enemies through state visits and speaking at the United Nations General Assembly. In November of this year, the Syrian president visited President Trump in the Oval Office, making him the first Syrian head of state to visit the United States since 1946. Through establishing diplomatic relations, President Sharaa not only demonstrated his commitment to international collaboration but also legitimized the new government on the international stage. As a result, many of the sanctions Western countries placed on Syria during the rule of Assad have been lifted, providing the country with greater freedom to pursue economic rehabilitation.

Challenges to Reconstruction

Over the past year, Syria has directed its focus to rebuilding the nation after the unprecedented victory over Assad, although the corruption of the former dictatorship, in conjunction with years of war, have posed significant challenges. While the end of the civil war has allowed roughly three million domestically and internationally displaced refugees to return, the country is grappling with the effects of a crippled economy and extensive physical damage. The World Bank estimates that total reconstruction costs will exceed 216 billion U.S. dollars. During the war, Syria’s economy declined by more than 50%, leaving more than 90% of the population living in poverty. The interim government has been working with international partners to secure aid and investments, but the road to recovery remains long. 

In addition to economic challenges, ongoing sectarian violence serves as another threat to reconstruction. Clashes between rebel groups as well as ethnic and religious sects have challenged attempts to foster social cohesion. Armed groups, including the SDF and SNA, who occupy neighboring territories in the Northeastern region of the country, have a history of mutual tension and have been facing obstacles to assimilating into the HST government’s military. Minority groups in Syria have been subject to a series of attacks earlier this year, including the Kurds, Alawites, Druze, and Christians. An attack in March targeted the Alawites, a sect of Shia Islam that Assad belongs to, resulting in the deaths of nearly 1,500 people. The perpetrators are believed to be affiliates of the SNA as well as the interim government. An armed group allegedly affiliated with ISIS, according to the HST government, killed 25 Christians in a church in June. The next month, over a thousand Druze were killed and injured, with the blame resting on armed Bedouin groups as well as government forces. The interim government’s involvement with these attacks has contributed to greater concerns regarding the efficacy of the new regime, as well as its commitment to security and equal protection for all citizens. 

Next Steps

Over the past year, Syria has strived to combat the destruction caused by the multigenerational Assad dictatorship, as well as years of civil war. The interim government has made substantial progress towards reestablishing relationships with other governments and international institutions. However, pervasive sectarian violence, widespread poverty, and the destruction of infrastructure and property have continued to be paramount obstacles to reconstruction. In order to successfully work towards rebuilding the nation, policy analysts recommend that the interim government create a clear plan for economic rehabilitation, transitional justice, and long-term success. In addition, these analysts call upon the international community to boost investment, foster diplomatic ties, and motivate the interim government to share its power with other political parties. During an interview on the country’s current state in comparison to Assad’s regime, one Syrian dentist remarked, “Of course it’s better, there’s freedom of some sort.” While the nation’s newfound independence has been a major triumph for the Syrian people, the work has only just begun in laying the groundwork for economic independence and a secure future.