
Weekly News Digest for October 4th, 2024
Compiled by Lydia Wong, Nila Karunakaran, Tobyn Smith, Joseph Quinn, Layla Jeeth,
Trinity De Lima, Mary Wahn
Edited by John Wilson, Lydia Wong, Grey Cohen, Ryan Simons, Sara Anis Ali
Asia and the Pacific
Kashmir Hosts First Regional Election Since 2019 Relegation to Union Territory Status
On Tuesday, the former Indian autonomous state of Jammu and Kashmir wrapped up its first elections since being stripped of its autonomous status in 2019. The elections were held in three phases from September 18th to October 1st, and results will be published on October 8th. Unlike past elections spoiled by violence and boycotts aimed at delegitimizing New Delhi’s control, higher rates of voter turnout signal the region’s readiness to return to local governance. Kashmiris have long awaited the opportunity to voice their concerns, since the region has been under federal control with no local representation since 2019. Kashmir has experienced unprecedented rates of poverty, restrictions on free speech, digital repression, and a lack of communal protection during the five-year hiatus.
Kashmir was the only Muslim-majority region to join the Indian union after independence in 1947. Since the 1990s, however, there has been violence in the Indian-administered side of Kashmir due to the presence of an armed, separatist insurgency that has claimed thousands of lives, including civilians and security forces alike. The region’s decades-long instability came to a head in August 2019 when the Indian government controversially revoked Article 370, the constitutional provision protecting Kashmir’s statehood and autonomy, providing the foundation of its complex relationship with India for 70 years. Now, Kashmir no longer has a separate constitution, nor can it bar out-of-state Indians from purchasing property. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi argued it was a necessary move in putting Kashmir on the same footing as the rest of India as well as bringing development to the region. Critics argue it may have been linked to growing fears of India’s slowing economic growth. P Chidambaram, a senior leader in the opposition Indian National Congress Party, warned the Parliament that this “catastrophic step” could invoke grave consequences.
As interstate resistance escalates, the stakes of Kashmir’s elections are extremely high for India. The Assembly elections could influence India’s national narrative and send ripple effects across the region. With the reinstatement of democratic processes, the elections will test the relevance of local politics and regional parties, like Jammu and Kashmir’s National Conference and People’s Democratic Parties, against Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The ongoing elections will likely become a litmus test for the BJP’s vision of a unified, centrally-administered India, following the scrapping of Article 370. On one hand, a successful and peaceful election could cue that regional stability is on the horizon. On the other, the slightest disruption could exacerbate tensions and mar India’s international image. The latter looks more likely when considering the hindrance the region’s current security situation may pose. Despite a decline in militancy since 2019, sporadic violence and lingering insurgency have spurred the concerns of both the local and international communities. If Jammu and Kashmir overcomes these unprecedented obstacles to execute a free and fair election, lasting peace and stability may just be feasible.
Central America and the Caribbean
Hunger Crisis in Haiti: A Humanitarian Emergency
On Monday, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) released a report that shows an increase of 1.2 million Haitians experiencing severe food insecurity in the past year. Nearly 6000 Haitians are on the brink of starvation. Almost half of Haiti’s 11 million residents face crisis level hunger as prices soar and gang violence target and disrupt essential transportation routes, making it nearly impossible for families to access food.
Haiti’s inflation rate hit 30% in July, escalating food prices astronomically, causing Haitians to seek unconventional and low-paying forms of employment. Food spending accounts for nearly 70% of total household expenditures, forcing many families to forego other essentials.
At the UN General Assembly (UNGA), UN Spokesman Stephane Dujarric emphasized that nonprofits and humanitarian agencies need an additional $230 million to help alleviate the suffering of those affected. Without immediate action, Haiti risks facing an even greater humanitarian catastrophe. Amb. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. representative to the UN called for sustained engagement and additional funding, personnel, and equipment to support the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission which coordinates an international delegation of military and police officers to stabilize Haiti amidst its gang violence. She also remarked that the US and its allies must act quickly to provide meaningful support for the Haitian community.
Europe
UK-EU to Rebuild Ties
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, met this week to discuss strengthening their relationship, following the political fallout seen in a post-Brexit U.K. In 2020, the United Kingdom left the European Union after a national referendum was called, resulting in a tedious multi-year process of withdrawing membership and agreeing upon terms and conditions post-withdrawal. The two, in a post-meeting press conference, hinted at a UK-EU treaty that covered areas such as defense and energy security in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The meeting also addressed having improved channels of intelligence on illegal immigration and smuggling. In a press conference following their meeting, Mr. Starmer outlined his desire to reset the relations between the two.
Another proposal brought forward by EU member states would allow young adults from the UK and EU to study and work between the countries, with the EU suggesting that this could be seen as a “token of good faith”. Starmer has been cautious about agreeing to the mobility program, stating the focus should prioritize growing U.K.business and trade . Starmer has also ruled out returning to the EU’s single market, customs union, or any form of freedom of movement arrangement implemented pre-Brexit.
They plan to meet later this year and agree on regular summits starting next year.
Middle East and North Africa
Israel Sends Ground Troops into Lebanon
The latest event in a recent string of escalations in the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) initialized ground operations in southern Lebanon on October 1st, targeting Hezbollah’s military installations close to the border. Israel began an air campaign on September 23rd in an effort to limit their own casualties during a ground invasion. The airstrikes killed 1,200 people and displaced at least 1.2 million others in Lebanon. While the air strikes primarily targeted Hezbollah-controlled territories, some strikes into Beirut landed within meters of Lebanese parliamentary buildings. On October 3rd, Israel warned over 20 Lebanese villages to evacuate ahead of Israeli advances, bringing the total number of Lebanese municipalities with evacuation orders to 70. Hezbollah is the dominant military force in Lebanon, with their territories concentrated in the southeastern region of the country. Although the majority of Israel’s assaults on Lebanon are focused within Hezbollah’s territory, the IDF has killed and injured an indeterminate number of civilians and several Lebanese soldiers.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to continue the invasion, and denounced the 21-day ceasefire crafted by the United States and its allies in front of the UN. Since the ceasefire proposal, Israel has moved forward with deposing Hezbollah leadership. On September 30th, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Israel killed Nsarallah, who led Hezbollah since 1992. In response, Iran, Hezbollah’s most prolific supporter, sent 200 ballistic missiles into Israel. Despite the decapitation of Hezbollah’s leadership in the past months, and Iran’s recent assault into Israel, the IDF faces a determined enemy in Hezbollah. In the wake of the Iranian assault, the world awaits Israeli retaliation.
Israel and Iran-backed forces have a long history of conflict. However, recent developments in the War in Gaza threaten unprecedented escalations, and many fear broader consequences. Israel is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire and pledged to continue its military campaign into Lebanon on September 27th. Despite Hezbollah’s weakened position and decapitated leadership, the militia group will remain a tenacious challenge for the IDF to conquer on the ground. The United States continues to send billions of dollars to fund Israel’s military and may be drawn further into the growing conflict despite calls for a ceasefire.
North America
U.S. Leaders Respond to Iranian Missile Attack on Israel
On Tuesday, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris responded to the Iranian missile attacks on Israel. Vice President Harris said “I condemn this attack unequivocally. I am clear-eyed: Iran is a destabilizing, dangerous force in the Middle East and today’s attack on Israel only further demonstrates that fact.” She also emphasized that Iran poses a “threat to American personnel in the region, American interests, and innocent civilians across the region…” On the same day, Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Patrick Ryder spoke about Iran’s attack on Israel and revealed that the United States assisted in striking down Iranian missiles. He disclosed that American navy destroyers in the Middle East fired “approximately a dozen interceptors” against Iranian missiles heading towards Israel. He also said that no U.S. personnel were injured or seriously hurt during the missile attacks by Iran.
U.S. President Biden later told reporters on Wednesday that he would not support Israeli retribution on Iran with missile strikes on their nuclear sites. The Iranian missile attack comes as Israel begins its ground operation in Lebanon, which has reportedly killed eight Israeli soldiers. Lebanese officials also report that more than 1,000 people have been killed in the past two weeks since Israel began its airstrikes on Lebanon. Prior to the Iranian missile attacks, Israel bombed a seaport and multiple power plants in Yemen in addition to its ongoing missile strikes on Lebanon.
South America
Argentina in Uproar as President Milei Cuts University Spending
Early on Tuesday, President Milei of Argentina vetoed a law that would have guaranteed more funding to the university system. Since then, thousands of students and teachers began protesting in Argentina’s capital. The economic state of the country is currently in a crisis due to its high inflation rate of 240% and half of its population living in poverty. Milei blames the crisis on overspending by left-wing governments. His reasoning for withholding state funding was that it promoted socialist indoctrination. These insufficient funds have caused top universities to struggle and possibly even shut down in the near future. The rector of the University of Buenos Aires, Ricardo Gelpi, stated that the college may permanently close in three months unless provided with additional funding.
The spending cuts on the education sector are just one part of Milei’s further contribution to Argentina’s economic crisis. Although Milei initially managed to decrease inflation in his first months in office through increasing taxes, reducing subsidies, and terminating public works projects, this led to a recession and lowered job security significantly. Now inflation remains at very high rates as Milei’s policies devalued the Argentine peso by more than 50% percent. Additionally, Milei and his government desire to counter public concerns through investing in a new foreign regime like Canada or Australia that favor extractive industries such as mining. If successful, it will attract foreign investment and increase capital for Argentina’s federal reserve which is essential to Milei’s chances in securing seats for his allies in next year’s parliamentary elections.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Surprise Offensive in Sudan’s Civil War
Sudan’s army, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), recently launched a surprise offensive against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in an effort to reclaim the capital city of Khartoum. After nearly 18 months of conflict, the SAF aims to shift the balance of power in the war with this attack. However, much of the fighting has occurred in civilian areas such as markets, universities, and hospitals. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the SAF addressed the UN General Assembly last week, voicing his support for peace efforts–provided they end the RSF’s occupation of Sudanese territory. He also criticized the international community’s commitment to ending the conflict, accusing some states of providing financial and logistical support to the RSF for their own interests.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis continues to escalate in Sudan. The conflict has claimed up to 150,000 lives and displaced over 10 million people. In El Geneina, the RSF faces allegations of ethnic cleansing and genocide against the Massalit and other non-Arab minorities. The ongoing war and restricted access to humanitarian aid have also triggered a famine. In response, the United Nations made a statement at its General Assembly calling for immediate action to safeguard civilians against the humanitarian crisis and bring the war to an end.
The ongoing conflict stems from a long-standing power struggle between the SAF and RSF. A December 2022 agreement outlined a two-year transition to elections and civilian leadership, but unrest in the following spring heightened tensions and instability. Peace talks ultimately collapsed in May 2023 after the SAF withdrew, citing foreign interference and external support for the RSF, which deepened the divide between the two factions.
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