Weekly News Digest for November 8th, 2024
Compiled by Lydia Wong, Nila Karunakaran, Tobyn Smith, Joey Quinn, Layla Jeeth, Trinity De Lima, Mary Wahn
Edited by John Wilson, Lydia Wong, Grey Cohen, Ryan Simmons, Sara Anis Ali
Asia and the Pacific
Amidst War and Instability: Myanmar’s Military Chief Meets China in Crucial Summit
November 5th marked the first time the head of Myanmar’s military dictatorship, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, embarked on an official visit to China since the coup in February 2021. The meeting with China – Myanmar’s closest ally – is intended to address several regional issues. Of particular focus was Myanmar’s escalating conflicts with pro-democracy rebels near the Chinese border. Both governments have expressed agitation, Beijing’s concern being that instability threatens its strategic and business interests in Myanmar.
Since Hlaing’s coup toppled Myanmar’s civilian government in 2021, the conflict between the military and the Three Brotherhood Alliance – a regional coalition of ethnic and armed groups – is estimated to have killed over 50,000 people, displacing around three million. The ongoing violence between the junta and armed resistance groups has been overshadowed by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, but Myanmar’s civil war continues on all fronts. In September 2024, the military regime proposed a peace agreement with the resistance to “solve political problems politically” through dialogue and elections. The National Unity Government of Myanmar (NUG) and ethnic armies – resilient in holding the junta accountable – snubbed the proposition. NUG’s dissolution and forced removal from politics looms as rumors of internal strife, territorial loss, and the severe humanitarian crisis across the region persist.
Despite widespread shunning and sanctions by many Western nations for the coup and subsequent human rights violations, China’s government maintains good working relations with Myanmar as a major trading partner and arms supplier to its ruling military government. Analysts say Beijing will also continue to support its ties to the ethnic armed groups holding territory along its border. Tensions between Beijing and Naypiyidaw, Myanmar’s capital, have also intensified due to Myanmar’s failure to crack down on online scam compounds that target Chinese citizens. The visit provides Hlaing’s government the opportunity to discuss the strengthening of economic cooperation.
Central America and the Caribbean
UN Vote to End U.S. Embargo on Cuba Causes Controversy in Argentina
At a recent UN General Assembly vote, 187 countries called to end the long-standing U.S. embargo on Cuba, with only the U.S. and Israel standing in opposition. The embargo, imposed in 1960, has been criticized for having destroyed Cuba’s economy and placing restrictions on essential goods. Although the UN resolution isn’t legally binding it shows a global push for Cuba’s right to economic independence.
For much of Latin America, the embargo is emblematic of Cuban resilience, and 76% states maintain solidarity with the island nation. The U.S. embargo on Cuba has significantly hindered the country’s economic growth, limiting access to international markets and costing Cuba an estimated $130 billion over the past six decades. Increasing challenges in sectors like healthcare, where there is limited access to American medical supplies and technologies undermines the country’s ability to provide adequate care. On the international scale the embargo isolates the U.S from the majority of the United Nations members calling for its end.
Europe
Germany's Coalition Collapse Strikes Fear in Europe
This week, the coalition holding Germany’s government together collapsed after Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his Finance Minister, Christian Linder, due to poor economic performance over the last two years. Scholz has indicated that he does not want to call a snap election until January 15th on which he would seek a vote of confidence in Parliament. This uncertainty has received backlash from Scholz’s coalition partners as it leaves a vacuum in Europe. Because Germany is acclaimed to wield the most influence in the European bloc, associations like the International Society for Performance Improvement have expressed concern about the potential implications that accompany indecision, saying that “political instability in Germany is not good news [at the European level].” Political analysts are worried that this could benefit the populist far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to gain a boost in popularity and influence as economic frustration lingers in Germany.
Germany plays a crucial role in European politics, promoting unity and economic prosperity across the continent. However, it has struggled economically this year and the United States’ recent election of Donald Trump as president serves as a further hampering of the nation. Germany heavily relies on exports and the economic uncertainty within the country and increasing American isolationism under Trump infringes on Germany’s future. For example, Moritz Schularick of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy stated that the presidential result this week marks the “most difficult economic moment” as the country faces “foreign trade and security policy challenges”.
Middle East and North Africa
Israel Officially Cuts Ties with UNRWA
On October 28th, the Israeli government formally ended its cooperation agreement with the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). The Knesset, Israel’s parliament, passed legislation in a 92-10 vote that will prohibit UNRWA from conducting “any activity” in Israel, the West Bank, or Gaza. In the same session, the Knesset classified the agency as a terrorist organization, effectively blocking any direct communication between the two entities. Israel’s government continues to stand by its claims that over a dozen members of the agency participated in the terrorist attacks on October 7th, 2023. In April, the UN-appointed independent review group testified that allegations of terrorism or support of terrorist activity within UNRWA were unfounded. Despite actions taken by the UN to mitigate any threats to UNRWA’s integrity, UN officials fired nine employees, citing their possible political affiliations. Additionally, a member of Hamas leadership, Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin, was discovered to have been a member of UNRWA. The agency denied culpability and claimed ignorance of their employee’s involvement with Hamas. The Knesset’s vote will have drastic consequences on the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who depend on the aid that UNRWA provides.
UNRWA has operated in the West Bank and Gaza since its foundation in 1949. As the principal agency for aid in Gaza, UNRWA has served as the international point of cooperation responsible for the distribution and coordination of aid resources for refugees. It is the only organization in Gaza that fulfills this role. Officials from the UN have communicated to Israel that it is responsible for replacing the duties fulfilled by UNRWA. UNRWA provides humanitarian aid, education, economic support, housing, social services, and emergency response for 5.9 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, and for the Palestinian diaspora. The UN’s total budget for UNRWA in 2023 was $1.47 billion. By banning the organization, the Israeli government will be adopting the responsibility of creating and funding a new platform to fulfill the needs of Palestinian refugees. The October 28th vote will go into effect within 90 days, projected to be implemented in January 2025. It is unlikely that Israel will be able to replace UNRWA within this time frame. The many hundreds of thousands of Palestinians trapped in Gaza that are facing famine and disease will no longer have an organization that brings the already-limited aid to the people it needs to reach. This decision will doubtlessly exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis and create more problems for both Israel and the Palestinian people.
North America
Former President Donald Trump Wins Presidential Election Against Kamala Harris
Former United States President Donald Trump won the 2024 Presidential Election on Wednesday, beating United States Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump’s victory has reignited conversation over his economic and trade plans for the future, namely his plan for tariffs on foreign goods. According to Donald Trump, the tariffs on foreign goods will create more jobs in the U.S. and lower the national deficit, among other things. Trump described this proposed plan as a universal 10% tariff and a proposed 60% tariff on all goods from China. This economic policy would likely affect the international economy. Some researchers found that the tariffs could result in drops in gross domestic product (GDP) for nations in the European Union, Asia, and South America. Additionally, researchers at the National Retail Federation (NRF) estimate that the universal tariff and tariff on Chinese goods will likely reduce American consumer spending power by between $46 billion and $78 billion.
On November 6th, following Trump’s victory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, also known as DJIA, increased by 3.6%, reaching a record high of 43,729.93. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also reached record highs, with increases of 2.5% and 3%, respectively. On the international stage, the U.S. dollar also reached a four-month high following the Presidential election, which likely points to reassurance in the outcome of the election and an expectation for looser business regulations and more economic growth under Trump’s presidency.
South America
Argentina’s Foreign Minister Fired for Opposition of the Embargo on Cuba
On October 30th, President Javier Milei of Argentina fired his foreign minister Diana Mondino. At first the reasoning was unknown, but later Milei’s office confirmed that the decision occurred due to Argentina’s vote against sanctions on Cuba in the U.N. summit. It was one of 187 countries to vote on taking away the embargo as the others in opposition were the United States and Israel. However, unlike Argentina’s previous left-wing government administrations, Milei started aligning with the interests of the U.S. and Israel. Milei’s administration stated that it was not in support of the Cuban dictatorship since the regime is a violation of human rights. Finally, he also stated that the directive of his administration is to begin basing Argentina on the values of Western democracies such as sovereignty and freedom.
Before the presidency of Javier Milei, Cuba and Argentina typically had close relations due to Argentina’s support of the embargo and Cuba’s support to Argentina’s claims of the Falkland Islands in Britain. Originally, the embargo began with the United States in 1962 when the revolution put Fidel Castro into power. It was a way of forcing the country to move away from socialist policies and embrace capitalism and democracy. However, the embargo never achieved this specific goal.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Violence in Sudan Grows as the RSF Attacks Villages
Over the past few weeks, members of Sudan’s paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) killed at least 124 people during attacks on villages in the Gezira state. The RSF refuted accusations of its mass killing of civilians, claiming that these were casualties of combat with local militias. Beyond mass killings, there are also accusations of the RSF raping young women and girls as well as looting various markets and homes across Gezira. The aftereffects of sexual violence on women in the region are proving fatal as female suicide reportings are rising. Despite this, the paramilitary group continues to deny reports attributing the rise in sexual violence to its soldiers.
The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on the mass killings in Gezira. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an immediate end to hostilities and the release of unobstructed humanitarian aid. Guterres also expressed fear for the transition of the violent conflict in Sudan into greater regional instability throughout surrounding parts of Africa in the north, west, and east.
These events come as the International Organization for Migration reported the displacement of over 14 million people, roughly 30% of Sudan’s population, as a result of the war in Sudan, making it the world’s largest displacement crisis of the year. Over half of those displaced are women and over a quarter are under the age of 5. The IOM also noted that more than half the population likely needs humanitarian assistance as they are unable to access shelter, clean drinking water, healthcare, and food, leading to widespread famine and disease.
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