Hits Close to Home: The War in Ukraine’s Shifting Strategies and Foreseeable Future

Katie Leslie

Introduction 

On February 24, 2022, Russian forces invaded Ukraine under the command of President Vladimir Putin. His authoritarian rule and eye on annexation have motivated his uncompromising behavior toward the ongoing war. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains committed to maintaining national sovereignty and territorial integrity despite the hardships of continuing to fight for more than three years. Ukraine’s allies, including multiple European nations and the United States, have supplied the state with aid and resources for the past few years. Still, as the war rages on, there is continued uncertainty surrounding Western commitment to Ukraine. Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government demand continued, unwavering support to ensure the state’s survival as Russia regains strength through technological and economic developments. Although Ukraine has responded with new and successful tactics, the war’s still unpredictable outcome raises questions about Ukraine’s future and how it may rebuild if and when the two warring nations reach a peace deal. 

The Current State of the War: Targeting National Infrastructure to Reach Diplomacy

Right now, fighting and strikes continue on both sides with fatal and costly outcomes. A recent Ukrainian attack in the Russian city of Belgorod killed three people, and in early October at least five died in a Russian strike on Ukraine’s city of Lviv, leaving many civilians without power. These attacks specifically focus on energy resources, leading to power outages across both states as Russia attacks Ukraine’s civilian housing and energy infrastructure and Kyiv targets its adversary’s oil refineries. Ukraine has increased these strikes in the last few months, damaging more than 21 of 38 significant refineries since January and causing “fuel shortages” that have increased energy prices in Russia. 

The focus on energy infrastructure reflects both states’ strategic interest in expediting the war by limiting the other’s resources and supply chains. With this goal in mind, Ukraine’s allies, including the United States, have strengthened sanctions to pressure Russia and counter the stalemate in front line combat. Pushing for negotiations, Ukraine has implemented a “long-range” drone strategy that targets Russian oil refineries to obstruct civilians’ gasoline supply and the state’s energy economy. This new strategy bolsters preexisting oil sanctions on Russia. In response, Moscow has zeroed in on centers of energy supply in Ukraine, including “power plants, transmission lines and gas pipelines.” The warring states’ attacks on national energy infrastructure aim to interrupt civilians’ lives and thus lead its adversary to surrender or call for a peace deal. 

Notable Shifts in the War Effort 

Two significant developments driving the current, energy-focused Russian and Ukrainian war strategies involve harnessing new technology and securing domestic political stability. Diverging from trench warfare in the first years of the war, strewn with artillery, missiles, and tanks, drones have taken over the fight in the past year. The government allocated substantial investments toward drones that are small and mass-produced. As the war evolves, fighting now mirrors a technological arms race as each state aims to make more weapons, specifically drones, in a quick, affordable manner with a more deadly impact. Russia’s industrial capability, supported by Iran and China, provides a crucial advantage in this competition. In 2025 alone, Russia has sent more than 34,000 drones into Ukraine while recently opting for long-range glide bombs on various cities. However, Ukraine is not without support, looking to venture capital sources for homegrown start-ups. The state has made significant progress with the “long-range” strategy and maintains great influence in the Black Sea, holding off Russian naval forces with sea vessel drones. At this point, the war is a technological battle that will continue to impact the states’ development in the future by advancing their ability to fight off adversaries and negotiate with the international community.

Russian drone manufacturing further prompts Ukraine to question their allies’ commitment and future levels of support in the war effort. Recently, Zelenskyy noted the discovery of British microcomputers in Russian drones and missiles, composed not only of British-made parts but also more than 100,000 others from across the globe, including Germany, the U.S., and Japan. As a result of the finding, Zelenskyy declared that states must be more strict towards Russia with sanctions and export controls. Now, the likelihood of a recession in Russia is more realistic due to a significant downturn in Russian oil purchases from India and China, coupled with the updated U.S. sanctions already taking effect and negatively impacting its economy.

The second determinant of this war is politics, which plays a decisive role in Ukraine’s and Russia’s strategies and end goals. Both are facing undeniable political and regime strain. Protests in Lviv erupted over Zelenskyy's move to diminish the power of anticorruption agencies; as a result, he withdrew the proposal. As the Ukrainian government delays elections that could ignite internal division, the state sees its democracy and morale weakening, potentially giving Russia an advantage. However, Russia has its own weaknesses: two years ago, a paramilitary force rebelled against the Kremlin. Civilian unrest and the war overall continue to hurt the state’s legitimacy. Most alarming for Russia, perhaps, are the rifts and threatened solidarity in Putin’s inner circle, coupled with the many Moscow elites who believe that the war should end sooner rather than later. The internal dissent is most apparent with the departure of his long-time Deputy Chief of Staff, Dmitri N. Kozak. Resignation of his advisors is rare, as positions around Putin are highly coveted, but Kozak stood outright against the war in Ukraine from the start.

What Does Ukraine’s Future Look Like and Are There Plans In Place?

Considering the many weaknesses and tiring of forces on both sides, optimism for a future of peace in Ukraine and between the warring states is strained. Few organized efforts among NGOs and allied states have considered a new structure for Ukraine if it prevails and how to rebuild its economy so it can efficiently compete on the world stage. One pillar of Ukraine’s recovery involves attracting workers and private investment back into the country. Further, an important, shared mission of the war for Kyiv and its allies is to demonstrate that there is consequence for annexation, alteration of borders by force, and the undermining of an established nation’s sovereignty. This will set a precedent for future cases and aims to deter further expansionist actions. 

International and domestic non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are among the total of 461 humanitarian contributors who have driven efforts to provide aid and on-the-ground support for Ukraine, including Doctors Without Borders, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and UNICEF. However, many Western governments, especially that of the United States, prefer to delay any comprehensive reconstruction plans until Ukraine's stability and independence are assured. Still, questions about Ukraine’s prosperity remain at the forefront of partners’ agendas as they assess which industries should lead the way in post-conflict Ukraine and whether civilian infrastructure should be rebuilt during conflict or after a peace agreement. These questions reflect allied states’ reluctance to consider rebuilding plans, noticeable in the United States’s unwillingness to focus on long-term strategies for Ukraine. The U.S. requires “basic” securities to be met before economic restructuring begins, prioritizing security interests over reconstruction.

Conclusion

For three years now, the energy-intensive war between Russia and Ukraine continues to test partners’ commitments to supplying aid and planning for the future. Significant shifts in the war effort and strategy, from technology to politics, characterize the current fight and aim to put an end to its stagnant, back-and-forth nature. It is clear that persistent uncertainty has limited other states’ involvement and even challenges their loyalty, especially in those helping Ukraine. While many leaders remain cautious of determining any potential outcomes, Zelenskyy maintains the strength and perseverance to safeguard the sovereignty of his nation, refusing to give in to Putin’s equally obstinate intentions to secure regions of Ukraine under Russian occupation.