The Vatican’s Soft Power

Cristian Paez

Introduction

On the 8th of May, the second day of the 2025 papal conclave, Robert Francis Prevost, then-prefect of the Dicastery of Bishops and President of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America, was elected as the 267th head of the Catholic Church by the College of Cardinals. Upon his acceptance of the ballot results, he took the name Leo XIV. Among the many records set, such as being the first pope from the Order of Saint Augustine and first to hold Peruvian citizenship, Prevost was also the first pope born in the United States and all of North America. 

As the Catholic world watched with fascination, speculation over two Americans occupying the helms of world power and, somewhat humorously, whether there was a link between his ascension to the papacy and U.S President Donald Trump, surged within hours of white smoke rising above the roof of the Sistine Chapel. Obviously, these claims were swiftly discounted, but the fact that such a question was asked raised questions about the Holy See's dedication to political impartiality, particularly with a pontiff from a leading global power.

Historically, the Vatican has fostered an identity as a neutral moral force, separate from the power struggles of the secular realm. Nevertheless, a pope from the United States inevitably provokes inquiries about the future trajectory of Vatican diplomacy and the practicality of sustaining its traditional distance from major power politics.

Conclave Politics

The 2025 conclave occurred amid global unrest, from the humanitarian crises in Ukraine to conflict in the Middle East. Amidst other factors, including age, perceived charisma, hidden pasts, potential controversy, and views on existing church doctrines, the College of Cardinals and the public were given reason to expect the election of a pope whose origin reflected these geopolitical fault lines.

Among the papabili, or likely contenders, was Archbishop Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. His leadership of some 293,000 Catholics in the region amidst the current Israeli-Hamas war, especially after his offering of himself in exchange for Israeli hostages being held in Gaza at the time, made him a leading candidate in the eyes of the public. Others represented the Church’s major ideological wings, such as conservatives like Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, centrists like the Vatican’s Secretary of State Pietro Parolin and Matteo Zuppi of Italy, and progressives such as Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines and Jean-Claude Hollerich of Luxembourg.

Despite his consistent inclusion among potential candidates, Prevost's U.S. citizenship presented a significant obstacle. Historically, the Vatican had been wary of aligning itself with superpower politics, leading to a widespread belief within its circles that American nationality was an unofficial disqualification for the papacy. This apprehension stemmed from the United States' status as a global superpower and the fear that an American pope might be perceived as biased toward U.S. foreign policy, potentially compromising the Church's independence.

Against these expectations, the conclave elected Prevost. His experience as a missionary in Peru, administrative service in the Congregation for Bishops, and Augustinian pastoral style likely convinced the electors of his suitability for the position by helping them overcome concerns related to his nationality.

History

Contrary to contemporary assumptions of neutrality, the papacy has historically been linked with secular or political power, with influence extending beyond the spiritual domain. The interconnection is not a modern phenomenon but rather a defining characteristic of the papacy's evolution from the early centuries of the Church to the present day.

In the initial stages of organized Christianity, Roman emperors wielded considerable authority over the developing religious institution. Constantine's Edict of Milan in 313 AD, which legalized Christianity and marked a pivotal moment in its acceptance across the known world, also initiated a period of imperial involvement in ecclesiastical matters. Emperors convened ecumenical councils, such as the Council of Nicaea in 325 AD, and frequently intervened in theological disputes to shape the doctrines and governance of the early Church. 

As the Western Roman Empire declined and subsequently collapsed, the Bishop of Rome progressively assumed a dual role, which culminated in the formation of the Papal States in the eighth century. From then on, the Bishop of Rome wielded spiritual and temporal authority over a substantial area of central Italy. The interaction between secular rulers and the papacy became a defining feature of the Middle Ages, as Western European monarchs routinely sought papal legitimacy for their rule. At the same time, popes, in turn, often relied on neighboring powers for protection and the enforcement of their decrees. Papal elections were also significantly influenced by powerful European monarchs until the issuance of Nicholas II’s In Nomine Domini in the eleventh century, which formally assigned the role of electing the pope to the cardinals. However, from the symbolic act of Pope Leo III crowning Charlemagne as Holy Roman Emperor in 800 AD to the intricate political maneuvering leading up to the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, which restructured the European political order, popes acted as significant kingmakers and exerted considerable influence over the destinies of European states.

The 10th century was a tumultuous period in papal history, often termed the "pornocracy" of the Dark Age (Saeculum Obscurum in Latin). The era was characterized by the alleged corrupt rule of Rome by the Theophylacti, a Roman aristocratic family. The papacy during this period was reportedly marked by nepotism and scandal, with papal selection and religious affairs determined by Theophylactus’ wife, Theodora, a powerful Roman senatrix or noblewoman, and subsequently her daughter Marozia. She degraded the Chair of St. Peter to a mere dukedom and carried the papacy into the lowest point of prestige in its history.

The Late Middle Ages witnessed the Avignon Papacy (1309–1377), where the papal court was temporarily relocated to the city of Avignon in southern France. The relocation led to a widespread perception that the French crown unduly influenced the papacy, undermining its claim to universal authority and fostering resentment throughout Europe. The subsequent Great Western Schism (1378–1417), during which multiple individuals claimed to be the legitimate pope, further fractured Christendom and severely damaged the papacy's credibility. The spectacle of competing papal claimants excommunicating each other plunged the Church once again into chaos and uncertainty, weakening its spiritual and political influence.

While presiding over a period of artistic and cultural flourishing, the Renaissance popes were also deeply involved in the complex web of Italian and European statecraft. Figures such as Pope Julius II, known as the "Warrior Pope," personally led troops into battle to defend the Papal States' territorial interests, blurring the distinction between spiritual leadership and military command. Pope Alexander VI, a member of the Valencian Borgia family, engaged in elaborate political maneuvering, strategic alliances, and alleged acts of nepotism and corruption to advance his family's power and influence within Italy. His actions may have indirectly contributed to the development of the Protestant Reformation.

At the same time, during the Age of Discovery, the Church frequently provided religious justification for colonial expansion. Papal bulls, most notably Inter Caetera issued by the aforementioned Pope Alexander VI in 1493, granted Spain and Portugal the right to colonize non-Christian lands in the Americas. The document effectively laid the ideological foundation for the "Doctrine of Discovery," a legal and theological concept that asserted European sovereignty over indigenous territories due to their lack of Christian faith.

While the Papal States were ultimately dissolved after the unification of Italy in 1870, marking the end of the papacy's direct temporal rule over a physical territory, the Vatican remained a significant actor on the international stage from the loggia of St. Peter’s Basilica. 

The 20th century marked a significant shift in the papacy's role on the world stage, as popes increasingly acted as diplomats in their own right. Though his efforts were unsuccessful, Pope Benedict XV made earnest attempts to mediate peace during World War I. During the interwar period, Pius XI signed concordats with various states, including the Lateran Treaty with Mussolini's Italy in 1929 (which established the modern-day Vatican City) and the Reichskonkordat with Nazi Germany in 1933 (which sought to protect the Church's interests in the country). However, these decisions were later considered controversial as they conferred legitimacy on what eventually became a disastrous rule of power. Pius XII's papacy during World War II is highly debated, too. While he pursued diplomatic channels for peace and humanitarian efforts, his ambiguous public statements on the Holocaust have led to historical controversy. During the Cold War, Pope John Paul II's strong stance against communism, coupled with his Polish identity, is considered to have had a tangible impact on the erosion of Soviet influence in Eastern Europe. 

In recent times, under Pope Francis's leadership and his notable facilitation of the diplomatic rapprochement between the United States and Cuba, the Vatican has continued to play a role in international diplomacy. It has also, however, faced criticism for its 2018 agreement with China on appointing bishops with approval by the Communist Party, which became a sensitive issue concerning religious freedom and state control. 

Today

Once a temporal authority with armies and territories, the Holy See now exerts significant global influence—not through conventional state power, but through its inherent moral authority, extensive religious network, and established diplomatic ties. Pope Leo XIV's inaugural homily, emphasizing global unity and condemnation of discord, violence, and marginalization, immediately demonstrated the papacy's capacity to shape political discourse and reflected its evolved form of influence.

Anticipated Policy Directions 

Pope Leo XIV's policies are rooted in Catholic teachings and the legacy of Pope Francis, shaping the Vatican's approach to global challenges.

Migration and Human Rights

Consistent with Church tradition and that of his predecessor, Pope Leo XIV is expected to strongly advocate for the rights and dignity of refugees, asylum seekers, and undocumented migrants. His efforts may include challenging restrictive immigration policies and mobilizing Church resources for support, legal assistance, and advocacy, urging humanitarian and compassionate approaches to migration.

Climate Action

Pope Leo XIV will maintain and amplify pressure for climate change mitigation and ecological protection by building on prior papal efforts. As a cardinal, he spoke out about the need for urgent climate action and voiced his support for using climate technology such as solar panels and electric vehicles.

Global Economic Justice and Equity

Drawing from his experiences and understanding of inequality from his religious work in Peru, Pope Leo XIV will advocate for greater fairness in global economic relations, prioritization of the marginalized, and the fostering of alliances with developing nations and NGOs working towards economic justice and poverty reduction. In addition, he may promote ethical investment, debt relief, and support for sustainable economic development.

Limitations

The Vatican's direct impact on policy is limited by its lack of state power, as its influence lies in shaping public opinion, raising ethical questions, and practicing discreet diplomacy. The Church's stances on social issues clash with those of some Western governments, while papal statements may struggle for traction in authoritarian nations without civil society support. 

As a U.S. citizen, Pope Leo XIV aims to maintain perceived impartiality as a universal leader, distinguishing the Vatican's spiritual mission from U.S. interests by emphasizing universal values and the common good. Domestically, his pontificate will likely be a focal point for the inherently divided Catholic Church, with the crucial need for success in this internal navigation of the Church's cohesion and sustained global influence.

In that respect, Leo XIV’s American passport matters far less than the global mission he must now carry.