From Friends to Foes: Understanding the “Open War” between the Taliban and Pakistan

Makayla Bangoura 

Overview

In late 2025, the ongoing conflict between the Taliban and Pakistani forces erupted. The continuance of these cross-border exchanges has led to deadly attacks on military bases, boarder provinces along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, also known as the Durand line, and the capital city of Afghanistan, Kabul. In February, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, the Pakistan Defense Minister, described the conflict as an “open war” between the two states. The global community questions how these two states that were once supportive of one another became adversaries.

Background

Since the Taliban’s inception in 1994, Pakistan has been supportive of their efforts to control Afghanistan. Their shared interests in prioritizing Deobandi Sunni Islamic identity, disdain for western governance, and their adversarial histories with India has created a sense of community between the two actors. Pakistan has also been the primary financial contributor to the Taliban, often supplying the organization with weapons, military training, and property in Pakistan. In recent years, however, Pakistan has attempted to take accountability measures towards the Taliban, due to pressure from the U.S. Despite this, when the Taliban took full control of Afghanistan in 2021, the Pakistan Prime Minister issued a statement of support stating that the Taliban was “breaking the chains of slavery.” 

The breakdown of this relationship stems from Pakistan’s claims that the Taliban is harboring Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban. The TTP is an extremist militant group that has been operating since 2007, the foundation of which followed Pakistan’s military campaigns against groups tied to Al-Queda. The group operates along the Durand line with the goal to destabilize the central government of Pakistan and establish a state based on an alternative interpretation of Islamic law. The TTP has executed these goals by attacking members of the Pakistani army and government as well as committing acts of terrorism such as suicide bombings. The Taliban has repeatedly denied claims of providing refuge to the TTP.

On October 10^th, 2025, Pakistan launched air strikes into Afghanistan targeting what they believed to be the base of operations for the TTP. These strikes hit border provinces along the Durand line, and the city of Kabul. The attacks were in response to the TTP ambushing eleven Pakistani soldiers on October 8^th, 2025, near the border. Following the ambush, TTP militants committed an armed attack in the district of Kurram. The Afghan Taliban referred to Pakistan’s actions as violating the “sovereign territory” of Kabul, and Pakistani official referred to this attack as a means "tosafeguard Pakistani lives and properties.” A 48-hour ceasefire was agreed upon by the two states, which led to an immediate ceasefire being brokered between the two parties with the help of Turkey and Qatar.  

Despite the ceasefire agreement, conflict began once again in February of 2025. On February 16^th , a suicide bomber believed to be a part of the TTP killed eleven border security staff at a border checkpoint in Pakistan. Following the attack, Pakistan carried out air strikes on TTP militant bases in Eastern and Southeastern Afghanistan killing eighteen people including civilians. Animosity among Afghanis surged after this deadly attack, which strengthened tensions between the warring factions, leading to retaliatory attacks against the Pakistani Military Forces along the border. These cross-border exchanges led to the declaration of an “open war” by the government in Pakistan. The latest of the deadly attacks occurred on March 16^th, 2026, when a Pakistani air strike hit a drug rehabilitation center in Kabul. 

Global Implications and Peacemaking Efforts

Both states have complex relationships with nearby states, like China, Russia, and India, as well as western states like the United States. This conflict will have a significant impact on regional stability, especially since Pakistan is a nuclear power. The larger states that provide support to the conflicting actors may also exacerbate the effects that this conflict. China and Russia are defense and trading partners with Pakistan, and if this conflict continues the involvement of China and Russia as two global superpowers may increase the scope and severity of this conflict.

Since 1947, India and Pakistan have had a hostile relationship due to religious extreme religious differences, and land disputes over Kashmir. These issues have led to decades of armed conflict between India and Pakistan. The already adverse tensions between India and Pakistan may grow more tumultuous as Pakistan views the TTP as an “Indian Proxy” and a supporter of the terrorist group. Though India has not claimed to support the TTP, Pakistan’s worries hold some validity as India has been making efforts to repair their relationship with Afghanistan. In 2022, India reopened their embassy in Kabul and in October in 2025 Indian Prime Minister Modi welcomed diplomatic representatives of the Taliban to the capital city of New Delhi. Indias attempt to heal relations with Afghanistan will certainly not ease the worries of Pakistan and create more tension. 

Global attention to this conflict has been limited, due the world keeping their eyes to the war between Iran, the United States, and Israel. The United States’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 has also led to the world and organizations like NATO taking their eyes off of issues in Afghanistan. However, India has denounced the actions of Pakistan on Afghanistan, and states like China, Qatar, Russia, and Saudi Arabia have taking the necessary means to broker a peace deal. The United States and the Trump administration proclaimed support for Pakistan, stating that Pakistan has theright to defend themselves from the Taliban. During the initial conflict in October, President Trump expressed that he believed he could end the conflict between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan. However, the U.S was not involved in the organization of the ceasefire dinner, and the conflict continues to intensify. 

Conclusion

With several world conflicts occurring, the ongoing clashes between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan are further contributing to the destabilization of global peace. This is especially concerning as other states increase their involvement through issuing statements of support or aiding in mediation efforts. The alliance shifts that are apparent between India and The Taliban display a the “enemy of my enemy is my friend” dynamic building, and if these arrangements keep forming between other actors, they may cause geopolitical effects that alter regional stability and diplomacy. The conflict also signifies a shift in state alliances and power balances as states are seeking to heal diplomatic relationships, as well initiating relations with the Taliban, thus furthering their legitimacy as a regime. The legitimization of the Taliban can also signal a future of states willing to negotiate and build formal diplomatic relations with non-state actors in the future. As civilian casualties continue to rise and tensions stew, the global community and NGOs will need to keep a watchful eye on the progression of the conflict to lessen global impacts and protect the civilians on both sides of the conflict.